One of the questions that I get the most when I do interviews with members of the media is, “What will the long term impacts of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns be on churches across the United States?” I have to admit that I don’t have a data-driven answer to that question. With the Delta variant surge just recently subsiding, many churches have not fully returned to any sort of normalcy when it comes to things like church attendance and activities throughout the week.
Anecdotally, I have heard some rumblings from a wide variety of pastors and denominational leaders that church attendance has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. What is curious is that those same ministry leaders are also reporting that the financial situation in their church has remained relatively strong despite fewer people in the pews each weekend. These anecdotes from pastors are reinforced by a report by the Evangelical Council for Financial Accountability entitled, “Defying the Odds: Giving Grows Despite the Pandemic.” As can be inferred from the title, the data is clear on this point: many churches took in more in donations in 2020 than they did in the prior year.
But, how can that be? Thom Rainer, the CEO and founder of Church Answers put together a helpful explainer that points to five different reasons that giving may be up, while attendance may have dropped off. I found his answers illuminating and wanted to highlight a few of them.
Membership vs. Attendance
One possible explanation that Rainier points to is that while overall attendance is down, that doesn’t mean membership has also dropped. In fact, he believes that many people are still core members of congregations, they are just not attending at the same frequency as they did in 2019. Because of this, the sanctuary is a bit sparser. But, these members are still giving, even when they don’t attend.
An Economic Boost
Another explanation, which I find particularly compelling is that the government has introduced quite a bit of money into the economy over the last eighteen months as a means to stimulate economic growth. Most Americans received $3200 across three payments during a twelve month time period. For some people who hadn’t been laid off, this money was not necessary for them to pay for groceries or the electric bill. Instead, it’s possible they may have seen it as easily expendable and decided to give it to their church. But as we look ahead, there’s little reason to believe that those kinds of payments will continue from the federal government.
Early Retirement
Here’s another interesting datapoint that seems relevant to the discussion. According to Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post, there had been at least three million excess retirements during COVID-19. The causes of those were two-fold. First, many older workers did not want to go back to the workplace for fear of being infected with the coronavirus. The other reason is that the stock market rapidly increased in value in 2020, making it easier for many people to retire earlier than they had planned.
There’s also a good chance that many older members of your congregation saw a significant gain in their net worth during the course of 2020. And, given that many of the most faithful givers in a congregation are older members, they may have felt inclined to step up their donations as a way to offset some of the possible declines from other givers during the worst of the pandemic. However, pastors need to be aware that some of these donations were likely one-time gifts that may not be indicators of future, ongoing giving.
This means that pastors and churches shouldn’t think the worst is behind when it comes to tithes and offerings. Instead, it would be wise to take a fiscally conservative stance in the near term. Given the rise in inflation, and the supply chain disruptions that may continue into 2022, things may not return to any sense of normalcy for at least another twelve months, and probably more.
It goes without saying - pastoring during COVID has been incredibly difficult for so many church leaders throughout the United States. Uncertainty seems to be the best way to describe the last eighteen months and it may be that this tenuous understanding of what lies before us will continue for the foreseeable future. As leaders, you can prepare, plan, and pastor in ways that recognize that it's impossible to know what lies ahead as you continue to examine the landscape around you and faithfully respond.